123
FXUS64 KSJT 260849
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, TODAY'S STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND START EARLIER THAN SUNDAY'S STORMS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH, POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO, THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION TODAY. RIGHT NOW, SOME MODELS HAVE
THE FRONT AROUND THE CONCHO VALLEY WHEN STORMS START TO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL END UP AND OUR STORM CHANCES TODAY. WE COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE MAIN SEVERE EVENTS WILL
BE IN THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS STORMS INITIATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS WE GO INTO
THE EVENING, STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST, CONVERGE, AND FORM
AN MCS, INCREASING OUR WIND THREAT. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR ANY
STORMS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRACKING THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THERE STILL REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, AND REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
SITES, ESPECIALLY OVER TERMINALS WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 64 79 62 / 60 30 10 20
SAN ANGELO 90 64 84 62 / 30 20 20 40
JUNCTION 95 65 90 62 / 30 30 40 50
BROWNWOOD 85 64 82 62 / 70 40 20 30
SWEETWATER 81 64 79 62 / 40 20 10 20
OZONA 96 66 87 63 / 10 20 30 50
BRADY 88 65 82 64 / 50 40 30 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP
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