864
FXUS64 KSJT 261837
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
137 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, TODAY'S STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND START EARLIER THAN SUNDAY'S STORMS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH, POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO, THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION TODAY. RIGHT NOW, SOME MODELS HAVE
THE FRONT AROUND THE CONCHO VALLEY WHEN STORMS START TO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL END UP AND OUR STORM CHANCES TODAY. WE COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE MAIN SEVERE EVENTS WILL
BE IN THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS STORMS INITIATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS WE GO INTO
THE EVENING, STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST, CONVERGE, AND FORM
AN MCS, INCREASING OUR WIND THREAT. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR ANY
STORMS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY AND SABA LINE, WHERE
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PLACE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS NORTHWARD TO STERLING CITY, SAN ANGELO, BRADY AND SAN SABA.
WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS REGION WITH A CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER. WEDNESDAY DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION, BUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT MANY IF NOT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE TRIED TO USE LATEST CAMS FOR FIRST THOUGHTS ON TIMING
BUT THIS WILL OF COURSE NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME AS THE STORMS
DEVELOP. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST, WITH MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF THE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 80 64 82 / 40 10 30 30
SAN ANGELO 64 86 62 85 / 20 20 40 40
JUNCTION 64 89 63 86 / 50 40 50 50
BROWNWOOD 63 83 63 83 / 60 20 40 30
SWEETWATER 64 81 64 83 / 20 10 30 30
OZONA 66 89 63 85 / 10 30 50 40
BRADY 65 82 64 82 / 60 30 50 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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