820
FXUS64 KSJT 261907
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
207 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT RISK IN THE
BIG COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
WEAK COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM BIG LAKE TO
ELDORADO TO JUNCTION LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE
ALREADY IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SPC
HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF STORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS, EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOS POSSIBLE. THIS ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL, AND FEW
TORNADOS OCCURRED. BACK BUILDING/SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY...FROM STERLING CITY TO
SAN ANGELO 3 TO 4 PM...THEN SOUTHEAST TO EDEN...BRADY...MASON 5 TO
6 PM, AND AREAS ALONG I-10 FROM 6 TO 7 PM. BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERE STORMS THAT ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN
ABILENE AND DALLAS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY AND SABA LINE, WHERE
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PLACE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS NORTHWARD TO STERLING CITY, SAN ANGELO, BRADY AND SAN SABA.
WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS REGION WITH A CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER. WEDNESDAY DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION, BUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT MANY IF NOT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE TRIED TO USE LATEST CAMS FOR FIRST THOUGHTS ON TIMING
BUT THIS WILL OF COURSE NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME AS THE STORMS
DEVELOP. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST, WITH MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF THE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 80 64 82 / 40 10 30 30
SAN ANGELO 64 86 62 85 / 20 20 40 40
JUNCTION 64 89 63 86 / 50 40 50 50
BROWNWOOD 63 83 63 83 / 60 20 40 30
SWEETWATER 64 81 64 83 / 20 10 30 30
OZONA 66 89 63 85 / 10 30 50 40
BRADY 65 82 64 82 / 60 30 50 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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