632
FXUS64 KSJT 262358 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT RISK IN THE
BIG COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
WEAK COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM BIG LAKE TO
ELDORADO TO JUNCTION LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE
ALREADY IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SPC
HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF STORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS, EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOS POSSIBLE. THIS ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL, AND FEW
TORNADOS OCCURRED. BACK BUILDING/SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY...FROM STERLING CITY TO
SAN ANGELO 3 TO 4 PM...THEN SOUTHEAST TO EDEN...BRADY...MASON 5 TO
6 PM, AND AREAS ALONG I-10 FROM 6 TO 7 PM. BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERE STORMS THAT ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN
ABILENE AND DALLAS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY AND SABA LINE, WHERE
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PLACE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS NORTHWARD TO STERLING CITY, SAN ANGELO, BRADY AND SAN SABA.
WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS REGION WITH A CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER. WEDNESDAY DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION, BUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
MERTZON TO SAN ANGELO TO BROOKESMITH AT 645 PM. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBBD AND
KJCT THROUGH 02Z-03Z. THE KSOA TAF SITE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MAY BE BRIEFLY AFFECTED.
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS, AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. AT LEAST
PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE CLEARING OCCURS
FARTHER SOUTH. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER. WHILE BROKEN COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY MONDAY, CEILINGS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE 3000FT BY 15-16Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OR BECOME
NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT
KSJT AND KBBD BY 18Z, WHILE OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE
MORE VARIABLE WINDS (CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 80 64 82 / 40 10 30 30
SAN ANGELO 63 86 62 85 / 30 20 40 40
JUNCTION 63 89 63 86 / 60 40 50 50
BROWNWOOD 62 83 63 83 / 60 20 40 30
SWEETWATER 64 81 64 83 / 20 10 30 30
OZONA 65 89 63 85 / 20 30 50 40
BRADY 65 82 64 82 / 60 30 50 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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