782
FXUS64 KSJT 270538
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT RISK IN THE
BIG COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
WEAK COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM BIG LAKE TO
ELDORADO TO JUNCTION LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE
ALREADY IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SPC
HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF STORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS, EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOS POSSIBLE. THIS ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL, AND FEW
TORNADOS OCCURRED. BACK BUILDING/SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY...FROM STERLING CITY TO
SAN ANGELO 3 TO 4 PM...THEN SOUTHEAST TO EDEN...BRADY...MASON 5 TO
6 PM, AND AREAS ALONG I-10 FROM 6 TO 7 PM. BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERE STORMS THAT ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN
ABILENE AND DALLAS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY AND SABA LINE, WHERE
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PLACE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS NORTHWARD TO STERLING CITY, SAN ANGELO, BRADY AND SAN SABA.
WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS REGION WITH A CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER. WEDNESDAY DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION, BUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST TERMINALS MOVING FROM VFR CEILINGS TO MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS TO SHOW FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LATER TODAY, AS WELL AS SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS, VCTS, AND VCSH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 82 65 82 / 40 40 30 50
SAN ANGELO 63 85 66 86 / 40 40 30 40
JUNCTION 63 85 66 87 / 50 50 20 40
BROWNWOOD 64 82 64 83 / 40 40 20 50
SWEETWATER 63 83 66 82 / 30 40 30 40
OZONA 63 85 66 86 / 50 40 30 20
BRADY 65 82 66 84 / 50 40 20 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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