863
FXUS64 KSJT 270802
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE LINGERING LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW BREAKS BY
LATER THIS MORNING, AND MAKE WAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND FORT STOCKTON AREA. MODELS
THEN PROGRESS THESE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY BY TONIGHT, AND INTO THE HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF A STERLING CITY TO JUNCTION
LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND A MARGINAL
RISK NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE TO A ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. WPC ALSO HAS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER
TODAY, WITH THE MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S GENERALLY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEARING 90 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY AND SABA LINE, WHERE
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PLACE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS NORTHWARD TO STERLING CITY, SAN ANGELO, BRADY AND SAN SABA.
WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS REGION WITH A CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER. WEDNESDAY DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION, BUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST TERMINALS MOVING FROM VFR CEILINGS TO MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS TO SHOW FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LATER TODAY, AS WELL AS SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS, VCTS, AND VCSH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 65 82 65 / 20 40 30 30
SAN ANGELO 85 63 85 66 / 20 40 40 20
JUNCTION 88 63 85 66 / 40 50 50 20
BROWNWOOD 83 64 82 64 / 20 40 40 20
SWEETWATER 82 63 83 66 / 10 30 30 30
OZONA 89 63 85 66 / 30 50 40 30
BRADY 83 65 82 66 / 30 50 40 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page