676
FXUS64 KSJT 270846
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
346 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE LINGERING LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW BREAKS BY
LATER THIS MORNING, AND MAKE WAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND FORT STOCKTON AREA. MODELS
THEN PROGRESS THESE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY BY TONIGHT, AND INTO THE HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF A STERLING CITY TO JUNCTION
LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND A MARGINAL
RISK NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE TO A ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. WPC ALSO HAS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER
TODAY, WITH THE MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S GENERALLY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEARING 90 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, BUT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD LINGER AROUND OUR AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF
STORMS OFF TO OUR WEST, WHERE SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER, THE
HRRR (WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER THE PAST FEW DAYS) HAS ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. IF WE SEE
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING RISKS.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND JOIN THE
FLOW ALOFT, FORMING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, A LARGE RIDGE WILL FORM OVER WESTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S BY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WE CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST TERMINALS MOVING FROM VFR CEILINGS TO MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS TO SHOW FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LATER TODAY, AS WELL AS SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS, VCTS, AND VCSH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 65 82 65 / 20 40 30 30
SAN ANGELO 85 63 85 66 / 20 40 40 20
JUNCTION 88 63 85 66 / 40 50 50 20
BROWNWOOD 83 64 82 64 / 20 40 40 20
SWEETWATER 82 63 83 66 / 10 30 30 30
OZONA 89 63 85 66 / 30 50 40 30
BRADY 83 65 82 66 / 30 50 40 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...TP
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