704
FXUS64 KSJT 271924
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THOUGH
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE CAM'S. MODELS LIKE THE RRFSA ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING STORMS BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND OZONA ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY THAT REMAIN EVIDENT ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHER
MODELS WAIT FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING STORMS. IN EITHER CASE,
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SOMEHOW SOUTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION LINE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NORTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
GETS UP THERE.
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE, AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY DEPENDS ON WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
EVENINGS CONVECTION END UP. EACH OF THE CAMS HAS A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AND NOT SURE ANY OF THEM WILL END UP BING
"RIGHT". MODEL BLENDS THAT COMBINE A LOT OF THIS SHOW SLIGHTLY
BETTER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS IS A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY, A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, BUT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD LINGER AROUND OUR AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF
STORMS OFF TO OUR WEST, WHERE SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER, THE
HRRR (WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER THE PAST FEW DAYS) HAS ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. IF WE SEE
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING RISKS.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND JOIN THE
FLOW ALOFT, FORMING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, A LARGE RIDGE WILL FORM OVER WESTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S BY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WE CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS HAVE NOW LIFTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KSJT WHICH SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY BASED ON
SATELLITE. LATEST CAMS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION AND
MORE LIMITED IN TIMING SO WILL INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE AVIATION
FORECAST AS WELL. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOP THANKS PARTLY TO WHERE ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS END UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 81 66 81 / 30 50 20 20
SAN ANGELO 62 84 65 87 / 40 40 20 10
JUNCTION 62 83 65 88 / 50 50 20 20
BROWNWOOD 64 81 64 84 / 30 50 10 30
SWEETWATER 64 81 65 82 / 30 50 20 20
OZONA 62 84 66 87 / 60 40 20 10
BRADY 64 80 66 85 / 30 50 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07
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