707
FXUS64 KSJT 280524
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING
WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THOUGH
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE CAM'S. MODELS LIKE THE RRFSA ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING STORMS BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND OZONA ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY THAT REMAIN EVIDENT ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHER
MODELS WAIT FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING STORMS. IN EITHER CASE,
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SOMEHOW SOUTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION LINE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NORTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
GETS UP THERE.
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE, AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY DEPENDS ON WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
EVENINGS CONVECTION END UP. EACH OF THE CAMS HAS A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO AND NOT SURE ANY OF THEM WILL END UP BING
"RIGHT". MODEL BLENDS THAT COMBINE A LOT OF THIS SHOW SLIGHTLY
BETTER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS IS A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY, A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FOR THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE WEAKER SUPPORT. HOWEVER,
A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS (1" DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(UP TO 60 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO 15% CHANCE). A MARGINAL RISK
(UP TO 15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEN, WE SHOULD SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE'S A STILL A LOW
CHANCE (20%) THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED. HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP
INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENTLY MOST SITES ARE AT VFR, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AT VFR
HEIGHTS. THERE IS SOME TSRA ACTIVITY THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, AND HAVE
A PROB30 AT THE KBBD TERMINAL. KABI LOOKS LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
TSRA ACTIVITY SO DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF TSRA THERE. OTHERWISE,
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR KABI, KBBD, AND
KJCT WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE
BY 18Z. AS FAR AS WINDS GO, OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA GUSTS, GENERALLY
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 81 66 81 / 30 50 20 20
SAN ANGELO 62 84 65 87 / 50 40 20 10
JUNCTION 62 83 65 88 / 50 50 20 20
BROWNWOOD 64 81 64 84 / 30 50 10 30
SWEETWATER 64 81 65 82 / 30 50 20 20
OZONA 62 84 66 87 / 60 40 20 10
BRADY 64 80 66 85 / 30 50 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...21
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