738
FXUS64 KSJT 281027
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
527 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, HEARTLAND AND PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HEARTLAND, MOVING EAST. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMAIN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER FOR CONVECTION TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS LOW(LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, HAD
ADDED PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THE KABI/KBBD TERMINALS. THE OTHER
TERMINALS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE TSRA, BUT WILL
KEEP DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE KJCT/KBBD/KSJT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, THEN VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 65 85 62 / 50 10 20 30
SAN ANGELO 85 65 88 63 / 50 10 10 30
JUNCTION 85 65 90 65 / 60 10 10 20
BROWNWOOD 81 64 86 62 / 70 10 20 30
SWEETWATER 84 65 85 62 / 50 10 20 30
OZONA 86 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 30
BRADY 81 65 86 64 / 60 20 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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