967
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, HEARTLAND AND PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HEARTLAND, MOVING EAST. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMAIN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER FOR CONVECTION TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS LOW(LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER BROWN
COUNTY AT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER
AN EXPANDED AREA, MAINLY EAST OF A ROTAN TO SAN ANGELO TO
JUNCTION LINE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY CARRYING PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KABI AND KBBD. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND UPDATE OUR TAFS AS NEEDED. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO LATE EVENING, AND EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST INTO LATE
MORNING THURSDAY, BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY
THAT TIME. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN BY MID-
TO-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DECREASED WINDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 64 85 63 / 50 20 20 40
SAN ANGELO 84 64 91 64 / 30 10 10 40
JUNCTION 85 64 91 65 / 20 20 10 40
BROWNWOOD 81 63 86 63 / 40 40 10 40
SWEETWATER 80 64 85 63 / 50 10 20 30
OZONA 86 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 50
BRADY 81 65 88 65 / 30 30 10 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19
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