868
FXUS64 KSJT 290601
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) WAS MOVING
EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM EAST OF BROWN COUNTY TO JUST
WEST OF MULLIN, THEN EXTENDING WEST OVER THE COLORADO RIVER TO
BETWEEN GOULDBUSK (SOUTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY) AND LOHN (NORTHERN
MCCULLOCH COUNTY). THIS MAY BE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA MAINLY EAST OF A ROTAN TO SAN ANGELO
TO JUNCTION LINE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY (ML CAPE VALUES 1500-
2000 J/KG) AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-60 KNOTS, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS, AND THERE IS A LOW RISK (2%) FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT. THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGER PART OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THURSDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING TIME PERIOD
WEATHER WISE, AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM12 MODEL INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE EVENING, AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY, SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
(ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEN, BY
LATE EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CLUSTERED TOGETHER AS IT
INCREASES IN COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER), DAMAGING
WINDS (60-70 MPH), AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERWARDS, A MORE RIDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A
LOW (20%) RAIN CHANCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY HITTING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOURS
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT TO VFR BY
THE LATE MORNING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY AT KSJT AND KABI, WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE
CONVECTION AFTER 30/06Z, AS A LINE OF STORMS TRACKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 63 77 63 / 20 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 94 64 79 64 / 10 50 30 10
JUNCTION 93 66 81 63 / 10 50 30 20
BROWNWOOD 88 64 78 61 / 10 50 20 10
SWEETWATER 92 62 77 64 / 20 50 10 10
OZONA 91 67 80 66 / 10 40 30 20
BRADY 90 66 78 64 / 10 50 30 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24
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