275
FXUS64 KSJT 290811
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) WAS MOVING
EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM EAST OF BROWN COUNTY TO JUST
WEST OF MULLIN, THEN EXTENDING WEST OVER THE COLORADO RIVER TO
BETWEEN GOULDBUSK (SOUTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY) AND LOHN (NORTHERN
MCCULLOCH COUNTY). THIS MAY BE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA MAINLY EAST OF A ROTAN TO SAN ANGELO
TO JUNCTION LINE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY (ML CAPE VALUES 1500-
2000 J/KG) AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-60 KNOTS, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS, AND THERE IS A LOW RISK (2%) FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT. THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGER PART OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
EXPECT A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE. HOWEVER, LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT(20 TO 40%). FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, GOING WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW(LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE IS STILL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S(ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOURS
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT TO VFR BY
THE LATE MORNING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY AT KSJT AND KABI, WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE
CONVECTION AFTER 30/06Z, AS A LINE OF STORMS TRACKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 63 77 63 / 20 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 94 64 79 64 / 10 50 30 10
JUNCTION 93 66 81 63 / 10 50 30 20
BROWNWOOD 88 64 78 61 / 10 50 20 10
SWEETWATER 92 62 77 64 / 20 50 10 10
OZONA 91 67 80 66 / 10 40 30 20
BRADY 90 66 78 64 / 10 50 30 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24
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