750
FXUS64 KSJT 291725
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
STATES TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING, AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE, WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG. IN ADDITION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RANGE BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KTS. LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT, INITIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, WITH
STORMS FORMING INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PARAMETERS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THE CONVECTION EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION, WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY,
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER/MID 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
EXPECT A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE. HOWEVER, LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT(20 TO 40%). FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, GOING WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW(LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE IS STILL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S(ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
INITIALLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
I-20 (TOWARDS LUBBOCK) AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MERGES
INTO MORE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 3Z OR SO, WE WILL SEE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT ERRATIC WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW (FRIDAY) MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 77 63 87 / 70 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 65 78 63 86 / 50 40 10 20
JUNCTION 66 81 63 84 / 40 50 20 30
BROWNWOOD 64 78 63 85 / 60 30 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 78 64 88 / 60 20 10 10
OZONA 66 79 65 84 / 40 50 20 30
BRADY 66 78 64 83 / 50 40 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...41
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