994
FXUS64 KSJT 291944
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
244 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS (HRRR ETC.) ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL POSE THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2" DIAMETER) AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY (65-80 MPH WINDS). THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY BY AROUND 9 PM,
AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT APPROXIMATELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ON SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER OUR
AREA, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST,
AND ADVANCING TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A
20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A STERLING
CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE SATURDAY, THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY LEAD
TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH, THE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, SINCE WE ARE IN
THE LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE TIMEFRAME, SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PASSING SHORTWAVES AT VARYING
STRENGTHS AND SPEEDS, SO WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY 20% TO 30% CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY TREND UPWARD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
COOL TEMPERATURES OFF TEMPORARILY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
INITIALLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
I-20 (TOWARDS LUBBOCK) AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MERGES
INTO MORE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 3Z OR SO, WE WILL SEE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT ERRATIC WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW (FRIDAY) MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 77 63 87 / 70 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 65 78 63 86 / 50 40 10 20
JUNCTION 66 81 63 84 / 50 50 20 30
BROWNWOOD 64 78 63 85 / 50 30 10 10
SWEETWATER 63 78 64 88 / 60 20 10 10
OZONA 66 79 65 84 / 40 50 20 30
BRADY 66 78 64 83 / 50 40 20 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41
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