623
FXUS64 KSJT 260557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT BY LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST RECENT
CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEREFOR,
WE CAN NOT YET RULE OUT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U. S. THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. S. WILL WEAKEN, EVENTUALLY BEING
REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
US NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW SHOWERS
THAT MAY REMARKABLY REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KIMBLE/MASON/SAN
SABA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW IN THIS POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT "MUDDLED" EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED EAST AND WEST OF US,
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
AREA, BUT AS WAS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE WARM, WE MAY ACTUALLY
COOL A FEW DEGREES IF WE DO FALL WITHIN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ONCE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 74 94 75 / 10 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 69 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 92 72 93 73 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
OZONA 92 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 91 70 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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