615
FXUS64 KSJT 270629
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
129 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BORDERED IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST BY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO THROCKMORTON LINE, AND HAVE KEPT A LOW
(20% OR LESS) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
THERE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN PUSHING
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE ARGUES FOR KEEPING A
MENTION OF THESE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. EXPECT SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THIS WEEKEND, OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH. AN
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. GOING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SET UP BRIEFLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR, PRIMARILY
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TRAILING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
TO SAG SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
PART OF TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A
SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WEAK FRONT (AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES), AND THIS CONVECTION
COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER. WE ARE CARRYING LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40) POPS FOR A LARGER PART OF OUR
AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BROAD-BRUSHED LOW (20-30) POPS ARE ALSO
INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
REALLY NOT SEEING THAT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS 70-75 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT TIME SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 15Z TO 00Z WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 95 74 97 75 / 10 10 0 10
OZONA 93 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...19
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