835
FXUS64 KSJT 271121
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
MOST OF TEXAS REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF COAST, AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LOW (<10%) OVERALL TODAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES
ARE A BIT HIGHER (~15%) FOR THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE THE AXIS
OF PWAT VALUES ARE LOCATED AND WHERE SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE LOCATED. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THIS WEEKEND, OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH. AN
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. GOING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SET UP BRIEFLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR, PRIMARILY
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TRAILING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
TO SAG SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
PART OF TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A
SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WEAK FRONT (AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES), AND THIS CONVECTION
COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER. WE ARE CARRYING LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40) POPS FOR A LARGER PART OF OUR
AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BROAD-BRUSHED LOW (20-30) POPS ARE ALSO
INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
REALLY NOT SEEING THAT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS 70-75 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT TIME SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 15Z TO 00Z WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 95 74 97 75 / 10 10 0 10
OZONA 93 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK
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