521
FXUS64 KSJT 271822
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
122 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH A SOMEWHAT
MOIST (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S) AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(SB CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG) COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, LEADING TO SLIGHT WARMING, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BRINGING INCREASING STABILITY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THIS WEEKEND, OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH. AN
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. GOING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SET UP BRIEFLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR, PRIMARILY
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TRAILING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
TO SAG SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
PART OF TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A
SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WEAK FRONT (AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES), AND THIS CONVECTION
COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER. WE ARE CARRYING LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40) POPS FOR A LARGER PART OF OUR
AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BROAD-BRUSHED LOW (20-30) POPS ARE ALSO
INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
REALLY NOT SEEING THAT MUCH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS 70-75 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS COMING INTO THE I-10
CORRIDOR/NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY DURING THE 10-14Z SAT TIME-FRAME.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS. THUS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE S TO SW DIRECTION THROUGH 18Z SAT, WITH WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 14-18 KT THROUGH 00Z SAT,
WITH WIND SPEEDS LOWERING TO AROUND 4-8 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 96 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 76 98 75 98 / 10 0 10 0
OZONA 72 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SJH
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