955
FXUS64 KSJT 280532
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH A SOMEWHAT
MOIST (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S) AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(SB CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG) COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE,
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, LEADING TO SLIGHT WARMING, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BRINGING INCREASING STABILITY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
CONCHO VALLEY POSSIBLY TOUCHING TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. ALSO,
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE
COMBINATION OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR PARTICULARLY MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE 30-60% RANGE FOR MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY.
A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-30%)
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
REMAINING OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY- GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS COULD AFFECT
JUNCTION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 98 75 98 75 / 0 10 0 10
OZONA 94 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK
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