687
FXUS64 KSJT 281721
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
AS THE PERSISTENT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN FACT, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE GULF COAST YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED
OVER EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NEXT TO
NOTHING GIVEN THE CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AS AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE WEST
COAST. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
BE OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST INTO
OUR AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY
(NORTHWEST OF A ROTAN TO HASKELL LINE).
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS,
MAINLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY. THE BETTER CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2 INCHES ACROSS THAT AREA. WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED LOW (20-30) POPS
IN MUCH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND SOME OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. UNCERTAIN WITH THE SPECIFICS, BUT COULD HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A SETUP
WHICH MAY GIVE OUR AREA ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITHOUT GETTING
INTO TOO MUCH DETAILS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN, AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE, AND INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE 1.75 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA IN
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW THIS FAR OUT
INTO THE FORECAST, BUT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF THE MODELS STAY
CONSISTENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS KJCT OVERNIGHT, BUT LEANED AGAINST PUTTING IT IN
THE TAF PACKAGE DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN IT DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 98 75 98 75 / 0 10 0 10
OZONA 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...TP
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