548
FXUS64 KSJT 290642
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
142 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY
HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A 592 RIDGE PERSISTS OVER EAST
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS
COULD PERHAPS PUSH 100 FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY AS
SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT IN THESE AREAS. LATE THIS
EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY, BUT NOTHING STRONG TO
SEVERE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 70S AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE WILL HOVER AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE.
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LAYING DOWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND THE
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS REMAINING IN THE AREA, 20% TO 30% CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AND ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LOCATION OF THE BEST CHANCES THE REST OF THE
WEEK DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESSY PATTERN OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
GENERALLY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH RAGGED MVFR CEILINGS
TOWARD SUNRISE AROUND SONORA AND JUNCTION. ANY CEILINGS SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 15Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 15Z WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z, DECREASING
THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 97 75 95 72 / 0 10 30 40
SAN ANGELO 97 73 94 71 / 0 10 20 40
JUNCTION 96 71 93 69 / 0 0 20 20
BROWNWOOD 96 73 95 72 / 0 0 20 30
SWEETWATER 98 75 97 72 / 10 10 30 50
OZONA 94 72 91 70 / 0 0 10 30
BRADY 95 71 93 70 / 0 0 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK
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