708
FXUS64 KSJT 291831
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
131 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY
HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A 592 RIDGE PERSISTS OVER EAST
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS
COULD PERHAPS PUSH 100 FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY AS
SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT IN THESE AREAS. LATE THIS
EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY, BUT NOTHING STRONG TO
SEVERE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 70S AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S., BUT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE STALLING. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST. A VERY SIMILAR
SETUP IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN BOTH DAYS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NO REAL CHANGE IN PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME RAGGED BRIEF STRATUS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CEILING OF ANY KIND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 95 72 92 / 0 20 40 20
SAN ANGELO 73 94 70 90 / 0 10 40 20
JUNCTION 71 92 69 90 / 0 20 20 20
BROWNWOOD 73 94 72 93 / 0 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 75 97 71 92 / 10 30 50 30
OZONA 72 90 68 84 / 0 10 30 20
BRADY 72 92 70 91 / 0 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
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