464
FXUS64 KSJT 292348 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AFTERNOON CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING THIS CU FIELD UP TO THE
POINT OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TOUGH TODAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE, WITH THE 12Z HRRR SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN 2 AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
AREA 1 WILL BE ACROSS THE ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE OUTFLOW
FROM A STRONGER SEA BREEZE MAY REDEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNSET. AREA 2 WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH BY LATER AFTERNOON
AS WELL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S., BUT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE STALLING. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST. A VERY SIMILAR
SETUP IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN BOTH DAYS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MONITORING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THE KJCT TAF. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
OUR AREA FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CARRYING MVFR CEILINGS AT KJCT AND KSOA.
OTHERWISE, DURING THE DAY MONDAY EXPECT TO HAVE A VFR-BASED
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY EVENING.
BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY NORTH OF THE KABI
TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD (00Z TUESDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 95 72 92 / 0 20 40 20
SAN ANGELO 73 94 70 90 / 0 10 40 20
JUNCTION 71 92 69 90 / 0 20 20 20
BROWNWOOD 73 94 72 93 / 0 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 75 97 71 92 / 10 30 50 30
OZONA 72 90 68 84 / 0 10 30 20
BRADY 72 92 70 91 / 0 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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