349
FXUS64 KSJT 300622
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
122 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AFTERNOON CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING THIS CU FIELD UP TO THE
POINT OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TOUGH TODAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE, WITH THE 12Z HRRR SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN 2 AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
AREA 1 WILL BE ACROSS THE ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE OUTFLOW
FROM A STRONGER SEA BREEZE MAY REDEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNSET. AREA 2 WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH BY LATER AFTERNOON
AS WELL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
ON TUESDAY, THE DISORGANIZED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BARRY ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES LAID DOWN BY
TODAY'S EXPECTED CONVECTION, ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES), TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA, BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. ANOTHER WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AGAIN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE
AGAIN, BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER
THESE RELATIVE WEAKNESSES WITHIN BROADER RIDGING, DUE TO ADDED
CLOUD COVER, AND OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-COOLED AIR.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA,
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AND BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10-12Z FROM THE SOUTH. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 15Z
WITH GUSTS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ABILENE
AND SWEETWATER BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 72 92 73 / 10 40 30 20
SAN ANGELO 94 70 89 71 / 20 30 20 20
JUNCTION 92 69 88 70 / 30 20 30 20
BROWNWOOD 94 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
SWEETWATER 96 71 91 72 / 20 50 30 30
OZONA 91 69 84 69 / 20 40 30 30
BRADY 92 69 90 70 / 20 20 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK
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