503
FXUS64 KSJT 301119
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
619 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
KEEPING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 AND DRIFT NORTHWARD TO AROUND
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS EVENING, HI-RES MODELS SHOW STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG COUNTRY.
SRH VALUES WILL INCREASE AND INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
ARE PRODUCED BY EARLIER STORMS COULD CHANGE TIMING AND LOCATION FOR
LATER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
ON TUESDAY, THE DISORGANIZED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BARRY ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES LAID DOWN BY
TODAY'S EXPECTED CONVECTION, ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES), TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA, BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. ANOTHER WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AGAIN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE
AGAIN, BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER
THESE RELATIVE WEAKNESSES WITHIN BROADER RIDGING, DUE TO ADDED
CLOUD COVER, AND OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-COOLED AIR.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA,
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AND BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z, ESPECIALLY
FOR ABILENE AND SWEETWATER, WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SET UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 72 92 73 / 10 40 30 20
SAN ANGELO 94 70 89 71 / 20 30 20 20
JUNCTION 92 69 88 70 / 30 20 30 20
BROWNWOOD 94 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
SWEETWATER 96 71 91 72 / 20 50 30 30
OZONA 91 69 84 69 / 20 40 30 30
BRADY 92 69 90 70 / 20 20 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK
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