439
FXUS64 KSJT 191831
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
131 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVAIL WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. HIGHS SUN AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE SOILS
REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE 4TH
AND 13TH OF JULY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM- ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SUCH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES STAYING TO OUR
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY- UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THE
MAIN IMPACT AT LOCAL AERODROMES CURRENTLY IS THE BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
EVEN AS A WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 72 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 73 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 73 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...61
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