509
FXUS64 KSJT 200538 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1238 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVAIL WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. HIGHS SUN AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE SOILS
REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE 4TH
AND 13TH OF JULY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
ONCE THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SHIFTS
WEST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE READINGS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OFF THE PACIFIC AND GOOD MONSOONAL SET UP
WILL HELP GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS
INTO THAT AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
HAPPENS, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS, BUT STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY WELL
WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NBM MODEL BLEND IS SHOWING POPS LESS
THAN 15% ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE LATEST LREF IS MORE IN THE
15-30% RANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF AN OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO
SWEETWATER LINE. AT THIS POINT, THIS ISN'T A BIG ENOUGH CHANGE TO
THE NBM TO WARRANT ADDING POPS TO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
BIG COUNTRY BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON. REST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A SCATTERED
LOW CLOUD GROUP AT THE KJCT TAF SITE, BUT HELD OFF INCLUDING A
MVFR CEILING. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 12
KNOTS AT KABI, AND 6-8 KNOTS AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES. SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED TODAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY FROM
MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23 KNOTS AT OUR TAF SITES
FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 72 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 73 92 71 90 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 72 92 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
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