220
FXUS64 KSJT 200546
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
PREVAIL WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. HIGHS SUN AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE SOILS
REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE 4TH
AND 13TH OF JULY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY, WITH THIS
FEATURE DRIFTING WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION JUST TO OUR
WEST, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGHS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL DRIFT
WEST RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY APPROACHING 100. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS, RESULTING IN HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COAST, WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A SCATTERED
LOW CLOUD GROUP AT THE KJCT TAF SITE, BUT HELD OFF INCLUDING A
MVFR CEILING. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 12
KNOTS AT KABI, AND 6-8 KNOTS AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES. SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED TODAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY FROM
MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23 KNOTS AT OUR TAF SITES
FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 92 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 92 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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