471
FXUS64 KSJT 201104
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
604 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST. A WEAK UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
ONLY DRIFT A LITTLE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A
MENTIONABLE POP. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER IN SOME PLACES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 92-94 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY. LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY, WITH THIS
FEATURE DRIFTING WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION JUST TO OUR
WEST, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGHS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL DRIFT
WEST RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY APPROACHING 100. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS, RESULTING IN HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COAST, WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND MAY HAVE A LITTLE PATCHY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z OVER THAT AREA. HAVE
INSERTED A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD GROUP AT THE KJCT TAF SITE, BUT
HELD OFF INCLUDING A TEMPO MVFR CEILING. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS TODAY FROM MID-
TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD BE
AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23 KNOTS AT OUR TAF SITES FARTHER
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY OR AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 92 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 92 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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