373
FXUS64 KSJT 201836
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
136 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE
RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE
HEARTLAND, THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY CONTINUE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY, WITH THIS
FEATURE DRIFTING WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION JUST TO OUR
WEST, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGHS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL DRIFT
WEST RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY APPROACHING 100. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS, RESULTING IN HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COAST, WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 76 98 75 96 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 72 91 72 89 / 0 10 0 10
BRADY 72 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...61
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