017
FXUS64 KSJT 202336
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE
RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE
HEARTLAND, THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY CONTINUE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEK. MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
INCREASES SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT THERE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY,
THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HAVE
ADDED SMALL POPS TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN OZONA TO BARNHART TO
STERLING CITY LINE. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A MORE
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN THESE RIDGES GET CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS IN THE
SUMMER, THEY TEND TO BE LONG LASTING HOT AND DRY EVENTS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE TRUE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECASTS
SHOWING WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. GIVEN THIS, WILL NEED TO START
BEING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS, AND PERHAPS
EVENTUALLY FIRE-RELATED PRODUCTS AS SOILS START TO DRY AND GRASSES
START TO CURE AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 15Z
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 76 98 75 96 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 72 91 72 89 / 0 10 0 10
BRADY 72 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24
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