547
FXUS64 KSJT 210545 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1245 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE
RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE
HEARTLAND, THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY CONTINUE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEK. MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
INCREASES SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT THERE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY,
THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HAVE
ADDED SMALL POPS TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN OZONA TO BARNHART TO
STERLING CITY LINE. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A MORE
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHEN THESE RIDGES GET CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS IN THE
SUMMER, THEY TEND TO BE LONG LASTING HOT AND DRY EVENTS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE TRUE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECASTS
SHOWING WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. GIVEN THIS, WILL NEED TO START
BEING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS, AND PERHAPS
EVENTUALLY FIRE-RELATED PRODUCTS AS SOILS START TO DRY AND GRASSES
START TO CURE AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE A LITTLE PATCHY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA, AND HAVE A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD GROUP AT KJCT.
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS
TODAY FROM MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23 KNOTS AT OUR
TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY OR AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 96 76 97 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 73 93 74 95 / 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 70 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 71 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 97 75 98 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 72 90 72 92 / 0 10 10 10
BRADY 70 89 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
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