752
FXUS64 KSJT 210556
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1256 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE
RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE
HEARTLAND, THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY CONTINUE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE, WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TO OUR WEST, ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
FOR THESE AREAS. OVERALL, EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 90S TO 100
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE A LITTLE PATCHY LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA, AND HAVE A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD GROUP AT KJCT.
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS
TODAY FROM MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23 KNOTS AT OUR
TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY OR AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 98 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 95 73 93 74 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 93 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 99 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 92 72 90 72 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 92 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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