518
FXUS64 KSJT 211103 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, IS SHIFTING WEST AND WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY) WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH EFFECT WITH THIS SYSTEM OTHER
THAN SOME ASSOCIATED MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT THIS WILL BE
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES AND SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES IN MUCH OF THE BIG
COUNTRY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SOUTH WINDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-TO-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 70S FOR OUR AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, WITH MID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE, WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TO OUR WEST, ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
FOR THESE AREAS. OVERALL, EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 90S TO 100
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
IN ADDITION TO MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA, PATCHY LOW CLOUD
COVER IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER OUR EAST-CENTRAL
(HEARTLAND) AND SOUTHEAST (NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY) COUNTIES.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MVFR CEILINGS, AND WILL AFFECT THE KBBD AND
KJCT TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE, A
FEW OF OUR TAF SITES ARE HAVING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTH. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASED SOUTH
WINDS AREA WIDE TODAY FROM MID-LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 24 KNOTS AT KABI, AND 20-23
KNOTS AT OUR TAF SITES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY OR
AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 98 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 95 73 93 74 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 93 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 99 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 92 72 90 72 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 92 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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