142
FXUS64 KSJT 220523
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ACTUAL WEATHER FROM IT IT IS SMALL.
HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ON OCCASION AND THAT MAY
CONTINUE, BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STAY OUT ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS. SOME OF THE CAMS LIKE THE HRRR
DO SHOW SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF AN OZONA TO MERTZON TO
SWEETWATER LINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID NOT INCREASE
POPS BUT DID GO AHEAD AND OPT TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z ON TUESDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY COME DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US/MIDWEST THIS WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY WHERE UPPER RIDGING IS WEAKEST.
WARM TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 102 RANGE
EXPECTED IN THE BIG COUNTY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY, THURSDAY
INTO MONDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE BIG COUNTRY WITH LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 98 76 100 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 96 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 73 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 76 98 76 102 / 10 10 0 0
OZONA 73 93 73 96 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 72 93 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21
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