238
FXUS64 KSJT 221916
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
216 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS WEST OF AN OZONA TO MERTZON TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER
LINE.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
AND THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY TO DRAG A LITTLE OF THAT
CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
CONCHO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THOSE
AREAS. LATEST NBM DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING REACHING INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS LIKE THE RRFS DO. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE A LITTLE LESS MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A LITTLE BACK TOWARDS THE READINGS WE SAW
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RRFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 103. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS A FEW AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS, BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE TIME FRAME IS SHORT AND THE
ODDS OF THEM APPROACHING A TERMINAL ARE SMALL SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 98 76 100 / 0 10 10 0
SAN ANGELO 74 95 74 98 / 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 72 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 97 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 73 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
BRADY 72 93 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
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