163
FXUS64 KSJT 221918
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS WEST OF AN OZONA TO MERTZON TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER
LINE.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
AND THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY TO DRAG A LITTLE OF THAT
CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
CONCHO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THOSE
AREAS. LATEST NBM DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING REACHING INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS LIKE THE RRFS DO. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE A LITTLE LESS MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A LITTLE BACK TOWARDS THE READINGS WE SAW
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS IT EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 100 TO 102 RANGE IN THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND THE SAME VALUES.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL
ALSO PUT INCREASING STRAIN ON PEOPLE AND ANIMALS, AND THE REGION MAY
SEE CONSIDERATION FOR HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK FOR THAT REASON,
THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE DEGREES LESS THAN CRITERIA.
NO RAINFALL OTHERWISE EXPECTED WITH THE DRY SUMMER TIME PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS A FEW AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS, BUT THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE TIME FRAME IS SHORT AND THE
ODDS OF THEM APPROACHING A TERMINAL ARE SMALL SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES, MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 98 76 100 / 0 10 10 0
SAN ANGELO 74 95 74 98 / 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 72 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 74 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 97 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 73 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
BRADY 72 93 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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