033
FXUS64 KSJT 072341 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NOON TO 8 PM...
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- NOT QUITE AS HOT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH OR EQUAL 105 IN THE
BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS ADDED A
HEAT ADVISORY. FARTHER SOUTH, HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES,
WITH UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.
THIS AFTERNOON, A NICE CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE, IF STORMS OCCUR. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED, WITH THE WARMER READINGS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST HOT DAY FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS STRETCH, WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECASTED TO
BREAK DOWN STARTING ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO COOL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 97 TO 103 RANGE ON SATURDAY COOLING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY.
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION REVEALS THIS TREND AS WELL, WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DROPPING TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) BY SATURDAY, AND
THEN LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS A TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WE SEE AT LEAST A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL BLENDS
ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SOME LOW
POPS INT THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A SAN
SABA TO MENARD TO SONORA LINE. ONCE WE GET CLOSER AND GET A BETTER
VIEW WITH SOME OF THE CAMS, SUSPECT THAT SMALL POPS WILL BE
EXPANDED OVER A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL START TO REASSERT ITSELF
FOR LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
INCH THEIR WAY BACK TOWARDS THE 100 MARK IN SOME AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AND WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SOUTH
OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS BY MID-TO-
LATE MORNING AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. AT KSJT/KABI, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KNOTS BY
MID-TO-LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
18-21 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TIMES AT KABI AND KSJT. BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WINDS AT OUR TAF SITES WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 72 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 72 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 73 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page