040
FXUS64 KSJT 100705
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
205 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND ALLOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE INTO TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, FOCUSED ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AND PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDITIONAL FOCUS. BEYOND THE RANGE
OF MOST OF THE CAMS AT THIS POINT, BUT THE LATEST NAMNEST DOES
SHOW A DECENT AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. PWAT VALES ARE 1.5 TO 1.75 SO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AND NOT TROPICAL AIR MASS TYPE OF VALUES, SO FAIRLY TYPICAL
TYPE OF SUMMER THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS ARE THE LIKELY RESULT.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE
ABSENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DROP DOWN
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER HIGH BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCHING BACK UP TOWARDS THE 100 DEGREE
MARK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 17 TO 22
KTS FOR KABI AND KSJT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 100 74 97 72 / 0 0 20 20
SAN ANGELO 99 72 96 71 / 0 0 20 20
JUNCTION 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 96 72 95 71 / 0 0 20 10
SWEETWATER 102 74 97 72 / 0 10 30 30
OZONA 97 71 94 71 / 0 0 20 20
BRADY 94 72 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...AP
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