004
FXUS64 KSJT 110525
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE 100 ACROSS MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE FOLLOW HEAT
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES A BE COOLER MONDAY DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE CAM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY) AND INSTABILITY
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BIG COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING, AND THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH THOSE DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD
MOTION).
MEANWHILE, EXPECT IT TO NOT BE AS HOT TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKENING OF
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOW 90S. SHOULD START TO SEE A WARMING TREND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD (UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S) AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 98 72 93 73 / 10 20 30 20
SAN ANGELO 97 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 20
JUNCTION 95 71 94 71 / 10 10 30 10
BROWNWOOD 95 71 94 72 / 10 10 30 10
SWEETWATER 98 71 93 73 / 10 30 30 20
OZONA 95 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 20
BRADY 93 72 92 72 / 10 0 30 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...42
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