704  
FXUS64 KSJT 112336  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
636 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING  
IN CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SCHLEICHER AND SUTTON  
COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST FROM THE  
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS  
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST  
TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
NORTH OF A STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. ALTHOUGH WE'RE NOT  
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS PLENTY OF  
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THESE STORMS, SO A FEW COULD BRIEFLY  
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.  
 
LATER TONIGHT, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLUSTER  
OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW FAR  
SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT IS THE MAIN QUESTION. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE, HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ALONG WITH A LESSER  
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 60 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT  
THERE TO BE A LULL IN CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE MID AND LATE  
MORNING HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE  
TO RECOVER, AND THERE SHOULD BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND  
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO  
DEVELOP OFF OF. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE GENERALLY 30% CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH  
NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN  
CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR A  
FEW OF THE STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN  
CENTERED ACROSS THE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE  
STALLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LEAST ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BUT  
PLACEMENT WILL DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT  
PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATLOWED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL STALL  
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND THIS PLACEMENT WOULD  
KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
ON WEDNESDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
WILL WEAKEN, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA STRENGTHENS  
AND BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD  
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SLOWLY INCREASING  
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 90S, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY) COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES BY THE END OF  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN  
THE VICINITY OF KSOA THOUGH 1Z THIS EVENING, AS AN OUTFLOW  
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KABI LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AS  
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN  
TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. CARRIED VFR OTHERWISE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 72 93 73 95 / 20 40 20 30  
SAN ANGELO 72 94 72 94 / 10 30 30 40  
JUNCTION 71 95 70 95 / 0 30 10 40  
BROWNWOOD 72 93 72 94 / 10 40 20 40  
SWEETWATER 71 94 73 96 / 20 30 20 30  
OZONA 72 93 71 95 / 30 30 20 30  
BRADY 72 93 72 93 / 0 30 20 40  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....DANIELS  
AVIATION...04  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page