858
FXUS64 KSJT 120557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST FROM THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS
CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF A STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. ALTHOUGH WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THESE STORMS, SO A FEW COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.
LATER TONIGHT, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW FAR
SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT IS THE MAIN QUESTION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ALONG WITH A LESSER
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 60 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT
THERE TO BE A LULL IN CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE
TO RECOVER, AND THERE SHOULD BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP OFF OF. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE GENERALLY 30% CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR A
FEW OF THE STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK
BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MOST
AFTERNOONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WHATEVER CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STILL LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION GETS GOING IN ONE LOCATION IN A
MINIMALLY CAPPED AIR MASS, ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEW
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAMS
FOCUSING MOST OF THIS ON THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL
ALL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS, BUT OVERALL MESSAGE THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LARGELY
DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS ON TARGET.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO A NOT TERRIBLY UNUSUAL
PATTERN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOESN'T REALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP OFF CONVECTION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN OFF THE GULF. THE AREA ENDS UP WITH SPOTTY IT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH BEST CONCENTRATION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
PLENTIFUL. MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING MAINLY 20% POPS EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ACTIVITY LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES HITTING 100 ARE LESS LIKELY
TO OCCUR, WITH THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING KABI IS
LOW BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR THUNDER ALREADY IN THE TAF.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 72 95 75 / 40 20 30 10
SAN ANGELO 94 71 94 73 / 40 30 30 10
JUNCTION 95 70 94 71 / 30 20 50 10
BROWNWOOD 94 72 94 72 / 40 20 30 10
SWEETWATER 93 72 96 75 / 40 20 20 10
OZONA 95 71 94 72 / 30 30 30 10
BRADY 92 71 91 72 / 30 20 40 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42
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