306
FXUS64 KSJT 121731
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
AS OF 1 THIS MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS, BUT THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUST AROUND 40 TO
55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES TO OUR
NORTH, STORMS WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE AROUND 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN,
WITH ISOLATED 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING, ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY IS UNCERTAIN, MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THEN
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT, AS SOME MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A MICROBURST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH, MEANING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. WPC HAS
ALMOST ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK
BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MOST
AFTERNOONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WHATEVER CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STILL LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION GETS GOING IN ONE LOCATION IN A
MINIMALLY CAPPED AIR MASS, ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEW
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAMS
FOCUSING MOST OF THIS ON THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL
ALL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS, BUT OVERALL MESSAGE THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LARGELY
DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS ON TARGET.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO A NOT TERRIBLY UNUSUAL
PATTERN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOESN'T REALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP OFF CONVECTION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN OFF THE GULF. THE AREA ENDS UP WITH SPOTTY IT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH BEST CONCENTRATION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
PLENTIFUL. MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING MAINLY 20% POPS EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ACTIVITY LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES HITTING 100 ARE LESS LIKELY
TO OCCUR, WITH THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z. FOR MOST AIRFIELDS, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE HIT OR MISS BUT ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. TAFS WILL NEED BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 95 74 99 / 20 20 0 10
SAN ANGELO 71 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 71 95 / 20 50 10 20
BROWNWOOD 70 94 71 97 / 20 30 0 20
SWEETWATER 72 96 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
OZONA 70 93 71 96 / 30 30 10 10
BRADY 71 92 71 94 / 20 40 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK
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