298
FXUS64 KSJT 121801
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NOT AS HOT THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG, SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AWAY
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
BUT REMAIN POSITIVELY-TILTED. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.5-2.0
INCHES, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS. AS OF THIS MORNING, WPC SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT OF MARGINAL FOR AN AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ABILENE TO SONORA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK
BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MOST
AFTERNOONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WHATEVER CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STILL LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION GETS GOING IN ONE LOCATION IN A
MINIMALLY CAPPED AIR MASS, ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEW
OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CAMS
FOCUSING MOST OF THIS ON THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL
ALL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS, BUT OVERALL MESSAGE THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LARGELY
DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS ON TARGET.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO A NOT TERRIBLY UNUSUAL
PATTERN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOESN'T REALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP OFF CONVECTION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED IN OFF THE GULF. THE AREA ENDS UP WITH SPOTTY IT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH BEST CONCENTRATION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
PLENTIFUL. MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING MAINLY 20% POPS EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ACTIVITY LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES HITTING 100 ARE LESS LIKELY
TO OCCUR, WITH THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z. FOR MOST AIRFIELDS, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE HIT OR MISS BUT ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. TAFS WILL NEED BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 95 74 99 / 20 20 0 10
SAN ANGELO 71 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 71 95 / 20 50 10 20
BROWNWOOD 70 94 71 97 / 20 30 0 20
SWEETWATER 72 96 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
OZONA 70 93 71 96 / 30 30 10 10
BRADY 71 92 71 94 / 20 40 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK
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