232
FXUS64 KSJT 130645
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG, SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AWAY
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
BUT REMAIN POSITIVELY-TILTED. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.5-2.0
INCHES, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS. AS OF THIS MORNING, WPC SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT OF MARGINAL FOR AN AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ABILENE TO SONORA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GENERALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LARGELY
KEEP HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. OTHERWISE, THIS RIDGE COULD SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR
OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 73 99 76 / 10 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 93 72 96 74 / 20 10 20 10
JUNCTION 93 71 95 71 / 50 20 30 10
BROWNWOOD 93 72 96 73 / 30 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 95 73 99 76 / 10 0 10 0
OZONA 93 71 95 73 / 30 10 20 10
BRADY 91 71 93 73 / 30 10 30 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42
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