080
FXUS64 KSJT 290518
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AROUND THE
100 DEGREE MARK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20 THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCH VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND THIS MORNING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TODAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S TODAY. WHEREAS SOUTH OF I-20, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
DENSE IN COVERAGE. AS THE FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR STORMS TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT, MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TOWARD OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN PUSHES
SOUTH SATURDAY INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/HEARTLAND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER
STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY , THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH THE FOCUS
OF STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10.
MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL
A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK FOCUSED OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY/NORTHERN HEARTLAND, BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY TO BRADY, SAN SABA. THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS
GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH MAIN FOCUS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
MIDWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT THE FIRST HAVE OF THE WEEK, BUT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY ON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF KABI AT
THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH.
KABI MAY BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED TSRA THIS EVENING, SO HAVE KEPT
THE PROB30 GROUP ADDRESSING THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT AND WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KABI TERMINAL AS WELL
LATER TONIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH THERE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE MAKING TO THE SOUTHERN SITES, SO WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS TOMORROW. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TOMORROW, BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A MENTION OF THEM AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 100 73 93 72 / 10 20 20 30
SAN ANGELO 99 73 98 73 / 10 10 20 10
JUNCTION 97 71 99 72 / 0 0 30 10
BROWNWOOD 100 73 95 72 / 10 10 30 20
SWEETWATER 100 72 93 72 / 10 30 20 20
OZONA 96 72 98 72 / 0 0 20 10
BRADY 97 74 95 72 / 10 0 30 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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