957
FXUS64 KSJT 290532
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S, ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING AND DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCH VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND THIS MORNING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TODAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S TODAY. WHEREAS SOUTH OF I-20, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
DENSE IN COVERAGE. AS THE FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR STORMS TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT, MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE TOWARD OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN PUSHES
SOUTH SATURDAY INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/HEARTLAND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER
STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY , THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH THE FOCUS
OF STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10.
MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL
A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK FOCUSED OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY/NORTHERN HEARTLAND, BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY TO BRADY, SAN SABA. THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS
GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH MAIN FOCUS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
MIDWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT THE FIRST HAVE OF THE WEEK, BUT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY ON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 THIS MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KABI IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
SCATTERED TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STORMS TRACKING IN FROM THE
NORTH (THROUGH 08Z THIS MORNING). OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 72 89 70 / 20 30 70 70
SAN ANGELO 98 73 96 69 / 20 10 60 70
JUNCTION 99 72 96 69 / 30 10 60 40
BROWNWOOD 95 72 90 69 / 30 20 70 60
SWEETWATER 93 72 91 69 / 20 20 70 80
OZONA 98 72 96 70 / 20 10 40 50
BRADY 95 72 91 70 / 30 20 70 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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