195
FXUS64 KSJT 291144
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S, ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING AND DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE PORTIONS OF THE
CONCH VALLEY AND HEARTLAND THIS MORNING, WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHWARD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT
INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. WHEREAS SOUTH OF I-20, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS DENSE IN COVERAGE. AS THE FRONT SINKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR STORMS TODAY GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OF OVER
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA AND
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (50-80%) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN MODELS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASHING FLOODING
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS TIME FRAME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST A 50-60% CHANCE OF THE NORTHERN 2/3S
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. POPS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
TRIES TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS ON THESE DAYS MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. READINGS DO CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO KABI, KSJT, AND KBBD
TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS OF NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 72 89 70 / 20 30 70 70
SAN ANGELO 98 73 96 69 / 20 10 60 70
JUNCTION 99 72 96 69 / 30 10 60 40
BROWNWOOD 95 72 90 69 / 30 20 70 60
SWEETWATER 93 72 91 69 / 20 20 70 80
OZONA 98 72 96 70 / 20 10 40 50
BRADY 95 72 91 70 / 30 20 70 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...TP
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