481
FXUS64 KSJT 291955
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS OF 2 PM IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ACROSS THE THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE BIG COUNTRY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
TOMORROW, SO GOING WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. AGAIN,
THE MAIN THREAT FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOW TO MID
90S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OF OVER
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA AND
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (50-80%) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN MODELS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASHING FLOODING
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS TIME FRAME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST A 50-60% CHANCE OF THE NORTHERN 2/3S
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. POPS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
TRIES TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SCATTERED STORMS ON THESE DAYS MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. READINGS DO CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT KABI AFTER 21Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT KABI TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER, SO WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 88 70 83 / 20 60 80 90
SAN ANGELO 72 94 70 84 / 30 60 60 80
JUNCTION 71 95 70 87 / 30 60 40 80
BROWNWOOD 71 88 69 82 / 20 60 70 90
SWEETWATER 71 90 70 84 / 20 70 80 80
OZONA 72 96 71 87 / 20 40 40 80
BRADY 71 93 71 82 / 20 60 50 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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